Friday, July 12, 2019

Trade Talk: Merrifield, Castellanos & Frazier

We've entered that period of the season and that so many writers love; the impending trade deadline, and with it comes speculation and rumors, enough to feed our appetite through the dog days of summer.

Now that we have an increasingly close deadline of July 31st, teams are looking at the standings to decide if they'll be sellers or buyers. For the 50-38 Indians, there is still a lot to play for this season, so I am anticipating them to approach the trade market from a buyer's perspective, even if a move to sell one of their prized assets might be beneficial (more on that later).

With that said, let's take a look at some of the potential targets the Tribe have been linked with in recent days:

Whit Merrifield - 2B & OF 


The Royals' first-time All-Star has been the one player I've seen mentioned most often when Indians trade rumors are discussed, and for good reason.

Merrifield, a second baseman and outfielder, is a reliable presence in the lineup who excels at making contact, effectively spraying hits to all areas of the field. The 30 year-old is currently batting .306/.355/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 11 home runs, 44 RBI and 13 stolen bases, and looks on track to complete another successful campaign.

In 2018 Merrifield raised his game in a big way, posting an impressive 5.2 WAR, only finishing behind the Cubs' Javier Baez among second basemen (Baez had 5.3 WAR). The star man in Kansas City slashed .304/.367/.438 for a career-high 120 wRC+ last year, with a league-leading 45 stolen bases, announcing himself on the national stage and attracting suitors around the league.

Competition to acquire him could be intense, but Cleveland should certainly be in the mix for Merrifield's services:
  • He's cheap - Merrifield is on a very team-friendly contract, and isn't due to earn more than $6,750,000 a year until at least 2023.
  • He's under club control for a while - signed until 2022 with a team-option for 2023. By then he'll be entering his age-34 season.
The Royals know what they have - our AL Central rivals have publicly said it would take a lot for them to consider trading him in his prime. However, with Kansas City's window to win still years away, at 30 years-old they would be wise to move Merrifield for a decent haul to upgrade their rebuilding process.

Perhaps a combination of top prospects like Triston McKenzie and Yu Chang would be enough to sway the Royals to part with their golden goose. I for one would love to have Merrifield join the team. His positional versatility is a huge asset, filling any weak spots the club could potentially face going forward.

Nicholas Castellanos - OF & DH


A move for Detroit's Castellanos would likely be short-term, as the 27 year-old is due to become a free agent after this season, but he could be the impact bat the Tribe would really benefit from.

Tyler Naquin, Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow and Greg Allen haven't established themselves as everyday players for the Indians, and have shared left field and right field between them with mixed results. The right-handed Castellanos could come in and automatically upgrade one of these positions, despite his known defensive limitations.

So far in 2019, Castellanos has slashed .282/.342/.468 over 366 plate appearances with 9 home runs and 33 RBI. The home run total is admittedly modest but he does lead the AL with 29 doubles, so he is still displaying that extra-base power into the gaps at least.

He isn't likely to cost too much in terms of prospects, which is good news for Castellanos admirers. His contract for this season is $9,950,000 so should be a pure rental, the price you pay in an effort to win now. I think adding a productive bat such as his could help give the Tribe the push they need if they want to consider themselves a real contender in 2019.

Clint Frazier - OF


Here's where things get difficult.

To acquire Frazier from the Yankees, it's going to cost Trevor Bauer. Like it or not, the price to bring the young outfielder back to Cleveland is high.

Trading Bauer this month, with the Indians still in contention for October baseball, will result in a backlash from the fanbase that may result in mutiny. Appearing to concede defeat in the race for the playoffs by trading one of your best pitchers will not go down well, not at all.

However, if you take stock of the whole situation, it could be beneficial for everyone. The Yankees crave an excellent starting pitcher and the Indians' outfield still needs upgrading to realistically compete against the top teams.

Let's look at Bauer first. In the last 18 months he has successfully reinvented himself as the everyman of Major League Baseball, thanks to his performances on and off the field, and is widely regarded by many as the ace of the Indians' staff. His 2018 season would have almost certainly resulted in a Cy Young award if he hadn't gotten injured (2.21 ERA, 221 strikeouts in 175.1 innings, 198 ERA+).

So why would the Tribe even consider trading him? Well, Bauer will be a free agent in 2021 and it's been widely reported that the Indians won't be in a financial position to retain his services, not at the price Bauer is expected to cost. Acknowledging this, perhaps the club would be wise to cash in whilst they can, even if it does appear defeatist upon first glance.


The 24 year-old former first-round Indians draft pick would be the prize in return but Frazier has experienced mixed emotions in New York. One of their most important hitters in the early months of 2019, when the Yankees' lineup was decimated with injuries, Frazier has recently found himself on the outside looking in, relegated to Triple-A once the regular starters returned to full health. Understandably frustrated to be playing at a level he's clearly outgrown, it widely rumoured Frazier will have a new home by the end of this month.

In 53 games and 191 at-bats, Frazier has slashed .283/.330/.513 with 11 homers and 34 RBI. He would automatically take over an outfield spot, probably in left, and be expected to contribute immediately.

I think the Indians would want more than just Frazier in a deal with the Yankees, and the Bronx Bombers would have to throw in a couple of other prospects to make it happen (Jonathan Loaisiga and Estevan Florial perhaps).

Selling Bauer does not equate to throwing in the towel, and I think it's important to recognize that. Cleveland's starting pitching depth is their biggest strength, and the team have shown this year that they have guys who can be called upon. Even without Bauer, a healthy Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and combo of Zach Plesac, Jefry Rodriguez, Adam Plutko and Aaron Civale might be enough to get by.

As sad as I would be to see Bauer leave (he's really endeared himself to me in recent times), I would be happy to welcome back Frazier and see his development for the Indians over the next five years.

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