Opening Day Roster Taking Shape

The Indians had a burst of roster activity yesterday when Terry Francona informed reporters that Rajai Davis and Erik Gonzalez will both be on the Opening Day roster. Davis will be the veteran outfield presence off the bench, with the ability to run and steal on the basepaths, and Gonzalez will be the Tribe's utility infielder, after he impressed this spring.

Gonzalez is the beneficiary of Giovanny Urshela's recent hamstring injury, meaning he will begin the season on the disabled list. Recovery is expected to take a couple of weeks. Both men have enjoyed successful pre-seasons but offensively, Urshela (.500/.512/.857 in 42 at-bats, 1.369 OPS) had the edge on Gonzalez (.300/.364/.350 in 40 at-bats, .714 OPS). Urshela's injury is bad luck indeed but the window is now open for Gonzalez to make the most of this opportunity.

There were some other moves and updates:

• Mike Napoli has been released but plans are in place to resign him. Discussions have taken place about Napoli starting the season at Triple-A Columbus but credit to him, Napoli doesn't want to block a prospect's path to the majors by eating into their playing time. A decision will be reached within the next few days if he decides to try his luck elsewhere. 
• Greg Allen was reassigned to Triple-A Columbus to start the year, as expected. The club want him playing everyday at this stage in his career, not just getting one at-bat a week off the bench. I like this decision and it will benefit Allen's development long-term. He shouldn't be rushed and the Indians don't necessarily need him right now.

• Right-handed reliever Alexi Ogando was re-assigned to minor league camp and will start the year in Columbus as well. The 34 year-old pitched 10 innings this spring with 13 strikeouts and 5 walks, with a 1.80 ERA, and by all accounts made a good impression with the management. Apparently the organisation plans to use him as a starter for the Clippers. Francona said, "We want to get him stretched out at Triple-A. The reason being he can always pitch out of the bullpen, but if he starts to get stretched he has a better chance and he can use all his pitches, including his change up." If Ogando can be utilised as a starter, he could be a very valuable depth asset in the rotation.
• No decision has been made on outfielders Tyler Naquin and Rob Refsnyder yet, but Naquin is considered by most to be the leading candidate. I only wrote recently about the 26 year-old and his chances of breaking camp with the team. The choice on who to choose will likely depend as much on their performances as it does on the health of  Michael Brantley and Brandon Guyer, and if they are ready to open the season. The decision on how many relievers to start the year with will also probably have an impact on Naquin and Refsnyder's immediate future.
• Finally, left-handed pitcher Ryan Merritt, who is out of options, is still wondering where his place will be. He'll likely hear what Francona's decision will be today. Merritt has not enjoyed the best spring training, throwing 9.2 innings and surrendering 17 hits and 10 earned runs, for a bloated 9.31 ERA, to go along with 10 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Alarmingly he gave up 4 home runs in this short period of time. I've always liked Merritt a lot but I think his future will be somewhere else.

That's a lot of excitement for one day, and I expect we'll start to see the final decisions come through over the course of this weekend. 

Thursday's trip to Seattle to start the season can't come soon enough.

Sonny Days Or Gray Clouds Ahead?

Sonny Gray is a quality pitcher. At the time of writing, everyone wants a piece of Sonny Gray. He's the hottest girl in school, and guys are lining up to ask him to prom.

He had a rough go of it in 2016, thanks to injuries and inconsistency, but so far this season he looks close to the Sonny Gray of old, the All Star pitcher from 2015. The 27 year-old is probably the most fawned over player on the trade block this month and the Oakland A's have a bevy of suitors willing to part with some golden nuggets in exchange for his services. Contending clubs left and right are putting together prospect packages for Gray, and the Indians are rumored to be one of those clubs. Whoever snags him will have to pay a heavy price however, as demand for starting pitchers this summer is high. A lot of clubs are in the market to upgrade their rotation, and the A's ace represents a significant upgrade for many.

Today I thought I'd run through some potential trade ideas the Tribe could fashion together to entice Oakland to part with their ace pitcher. It's no secret that Cleveland's rotation has been out of sorts this season, with only Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco performing well (although Mike Clevinger is developing nicely). The addition of an arm like Gray's would certainly boost the Indian's chances of success in the postseason.

On paper he looks to be a good match for the Tribe; he's under club control until 2020 and is having a strong season: a 3.72 ERA in 84.2 innings of work, with 79 strikeouts, all for a 113 ERA+ and a 5-4 record. He's been improving as the season has progressed, and his last 3 weeks have been superb, including a 6 inning, 2 hit shutout victory against the Indians on July 14th.

I'll rank the following potential deals with different grades, ranging from "In A Heartbeat" to "Over My Dead Body." Simple enough? Let's begin:

Trade Scenario 1

Oakland trade RHP Sonny Gray
Cleveland trade C Francisco Mejia

How about a straight up trade of Oakland's best pitcher for Cleveland's best prospect? I really like Sonny Gray, and have for a few years now, but I am firmly against giving up Mejia for him. I consider Gray a top of the rotation kind of guy but he's not elite enough to surrender a prospect who could become a marquee catcher for the next decade. With Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez struggling to prove themselves as long-term solutions (their sublime defense aside), Mejia's value is currently much higher to the Indians than it would be for the A's. In the very near future, catcher is looking like a position of real need for the Tribe so it doesn't make sense to jettison the one man already under control who could solve the problem. Catchers that can hit like Mejia don't come around very often; at Double-A Akron, the young backstop is slashing .336/.385/.552 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 10 home runs, 35 RBI and 5 stolen bases. Scouts and experts absolutely rave about the kid's hitting skills, and grade him high defensively too.

Mejia is the sole trade chip the Indians can dangle in front of Oakland that could persuade the A's to ignore the treasures offered by other interested clubs, but if I were Indians Team President Chris Antonetti, I would not be willing to risk losing a future star like Mejia. Even for an admittedly great pitcher like Gray.

Trade rating: Over My Dead Body

Trade Scenario 2

Oakland trade RHP Sonny Gray
Cleveland trade CF Tyler Naquin and RHP Triston McKenzie

This is more like it. Naquin narrowly missed out on winning the AL Rookie of the Year award last season and McKenzie is widely ranked as the Indians' number 2 prospect overall, and their top pitching prospect. The real jewel in this deal would be McKenzie but Naquin is a nice bonus. He's not had the best 2017 campaign so far, spending most of his time at Triple-A Columbus, but he's still young enough to retain some of his former value.  The potential is still there. Would the A's go for someone like Naquin? Given their history of taking guys seemingly off the scrapheap and getting production from them, I think they'd be more open to the idea than perhaps you might think.

Many fans consider McKenzie a 'hands-off' prospect in the same category as Mejia but I have other feelings. My thinking is this: McKenzie could be a superstar, but trading him for a pitcher already established as above-average when the rest of your team is so agonizingly close to competing for a championship, it's a no-brainer. Yes, there's some risk involved with Gray's injury history, so the Indians need to be absolutely sure he's back to full health. If the A's were willing, the Indians could trade McKenzie for Gray in a straight swap, but considering the young pitcher hasn't even reached Double-A yet, Oakland would almost certainly need a sweetener. Naquin could be that guy.

Trade rating: In A Heartbeat

Trade Scenario 3

Oakland trade RHP Sonny Gray
Cleveland trade CF Greg Allen, LHP Brady Aiken and SS Erik Gonzalez

Despite Brady Aiken being ranked above Greg Allen on most prospect boards, I actually think the loss of Allen is more significant in this trade. I absolutely love Allen. If Zimmer wasn't blocking his direct path to the majors, he'd be on track to contribute for the Indians within the next two years. As it currently stands, he still could, but Zimmer has started his career in the majors so well that it looks like Allen will have great difficulty forcing his way onto the big club roster. As a result, the young outfielder has become a pretty good trade chip, one that could come in very handy to acquire a player of Gray's caliber.

Aiken and Gonzalez aren't exactly throw-ins either. Aiken, despite his struggles this year (a 4.10 ERA and 14.1% strikeout percentage at A-ball Lake County), is still considered a top prospect and the former first round draft pick has time on his side to redeem himself.

Gonzalez has featured in 25 major league games this season and has performed well, and is likely to see an increase in playing time until Jason Kipnis returns from the disabled list. This is his opportunity to put himself in the shop window, as the Tribe's infield is already crowded with talent. Similar to Allen, it will be difficult to break into an established group of All Stars, so Gonzalez's future as a major league infielder could lie elsewhere.

The major difficulty with this trade is it's attractiveness. You just know that clubs like the Yankees and Astros have more frills to woo Oakland with, so I don't expect a deal like this would be tempting enough. However it's a win-win for the Indians if they could pull it off and persuade the A's to embrace it more than the other offers out there.

Trade rating: In A Heartbeat

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As I've mentioned, the competition for Gray's services is steep. The Yankees in particular are desperate to give their fans October baseball and they need starting pitching, and have a deep collection of prospects they could throw at the A's. The Astros rightfully think this could be their year and have a top 5 farm system to seduce Oakland with, including monstrous prospect Derek Fisher. Even the upstart Brewers are reportedly going all-in to acquire Gray, and could pull off a July trade deal similar to the CC Sabathia acquisition back in 2008.

I always enjoy the hot stove season and the race for Sonny Gray will keep things extra interesting this year. Do I expect the Indians to land him? I honestly think that the other interested teams have flashier prospects, and could be more willing to chuck everything at Oakland to make a deal. Cleveland has some tempting players on offer but I just don't see them risking all of that future talent on one 27 year-old pitcher, still recovering from a bad 2016 campaign. I would love to add Gray to the rotation, don't get me wrong, but there's definitely a limit, and it looks like a 5'10, 180lb switch-hitting 21 year-old Dominican catcher who absolutely rakes.

Thanks for reading.

Taking Care Of Kipnis: 2B Options

When it was announced recently that Jason Kipnis was going to miss some time with a shoulder injury, fans started to worry. Not outright panic but cautious concern. Given Michael Brantley's shoulder struggles over the past couple of years, it's definitely understandable to be concerned. Kipnis will likely miss out on making the Opening Day lineup, and the Indians are doing the right thing protecting their All Star second baseman. Kipnis himself has said if this injury had occurred mid-season he could have probably played through the pain but it's better to make sure he's 100% before any long term damage can be done.

With that being said, Terry Francona and crew are already looking at their options to fill Kipnis' boots on Opening Day, and I am going to do the same thing. Let's take a look at some of the guys the Tribe can send out there:

Jose Ramirez

Considered by most to be the clear favourite to take Kipnis' place, Ramirez could slide over from his home at third base with relative ease. The versatile 24 year-old has spent time in many different positions and shown he can fill in adequately all over the infield, so second base is no stranger to him.

There is some hesitation on Francona's part however: "I think our first choice is not to (move him to second), but we'll see," the skipper said. After a few years as the Indians' utility man, Ramirez seemed to have found a nice home for himself at third base so I understand why the club are unwilling to shift him around again, especially off the back of a superb 2016 performance. In a perfect world Ramirez could use 2017 to really make third base his own but he's also the best option where this particular problem is concerned.

If Ramirez is chosen to replace Kipnis then it leaves a hole at third base. Thankfully this is a position where the Indians have some depth. Giovanny Urshela is my choice to fill Ramirez's spot and it could be a great opportunity for the 25 year-old Colombian to showcase his skills. We've seen in the past what a defensive wizard he is at the hot corner but his bat has always held him back from sticking in the bigs full time. Urshela has only appeared in 9 games for the Indians so far this spring but has hit well (he's spent the rest of the spring with the Colombian team at the WBC). He spent all of 2016 at Triple-A Columbus and had a decent year, slashing .274/.294/.380 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 8 home runs and 57 RBI over 117 games for the Clippers. I'm a huge Urshela fan and would love to see him have an impact with the club this season, so seeing him feature early on would be a plus.

The other candidate to fill in at third would be Yandy Diaz, who I wrote about recently. Diaz has been limited this spring with a right groin issue (just 8 appearances), which has likely hindered his chances to crack the Opening Day roster. I'm excited about Diaz's future in Cleveland but he's almost certain to start 2017 with Columbus, given he has no major league experience. It would be a big test for the rookie to chuck him in the deep end on Opening Day, whereas Urshela has been tried and tested.

Erik Gonzalez, Michael Martinez, Ronny Rodriguez

This trio from the Dominican Republic are Ramirez's closest competition for the second base spot. If Francona is truly against moving Ramirez from third base then one of these guys will likely be partnering Francisco Lindor on Opening Day.

So far all three of these gentlemen have seen about the same amount of action thus far this spring but let's take a look at them individually.

Erik Gonzalez is probably the best option to spell Kipnis until the All Star is ready to return, plus he's already on the 40-man roster, unlike Martinez and Rodriguez. Cleveland's number 8 prospect saw some time in the majors last year, although he only had two starts over a 21 game span where he was almost always used to pinch hit/run in the late innings. In his limited time at the plate he didn't hit well but then I wouldn't have expected him to given how rarely he got the opportunity. Down in Columbus however he was much more productive, slashing .296/.329/.450 with 11 home runs and 53 RBI, good enough for a 122 WRC+. Gonzalez is a natural shortstop but his path to the majors will be blocked for many years to come by Francisco Lindor. Second base is going to be Gonzalez's best opportunity to show off his abilities because if the Indians don't have a future place for him, somebody else will and they'll be willing to trade. If the young infielder is given the chance to play well and put himself in the shop window, then that will only serve to benefit both himself and the club. Gonzalez is certainly a safe choice if Kipnis isn't expected to miss significant time, and he can easily be optioned back to Columbus.

Michael Martinez is the veteran option and you pretty much know what you're going to get where he's concerned. The 34 year-old has spent 6 years in the majors and is now on his second stint with the Tribe. Francona has always supported Martinez, despite the player having his many detractors, and trusts him in late inning situations. He's a career .197 switch-hitter and most often suited to a bench role, but his versatility in the field makes him useful in a crisis. I would argue that the Indians have better options than Martinez and despite his usefulness, the club should be looking to move forward without him.

Ronny Rodriguez is the wildcard in this pack. He, like Martinez, is also of the utility infielder category but I just can't envision Francona opting for Rodriguez as his starting second baseman over the other options he has at his disposal. As Rodriguez is the least experienced of this trio, his chances of filling in for Kipnis are slim at best.

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Ultimately the Indians and their fans will be hoping Kipnis' absence is brief and his replacement just a temporary visitor at second base. If he has to miss some time, even if just for a few weeks, I'd be much more comfortable with Ramirez covering for him, and Urshela being given a chance at third base. If Francona doesn't want to unsettle Ramirez on the corner, then I'd like to see Gonzalez be given a chance as an everyday player. He certainly looks the best option, at least defensively, and will likely emerge victorious from his battle with his compatriots.

Thanks for reading.