Opening Day Roster Taking Shape

The Indians had a burst of roster activity yesterday when Terry Francona informed reporters that Rajai Davis and Erik Gonzalez will both be on the Opening Day roster. Davis will be the veteran outfield presence off the bench, with the ability to run and steal on the basepaths, and Gonzalez will be the Tribe's utility infielder, after he impressed this spring.

Gonzalez is the beneficiary of Giovanny Urshela's recent hamstring injury, meaning he will begin the season on the disabled list. Recovery is expected to take a couple of weeks. Both men have enjoyed successful pre-seasons but offensively, Urshela (.500/.512/.857 in 42 at-bats, 1.369 OPS) had the edge on Gonzalez (.300/.364/.350 in 40 at-bats, .714 OPS). Urshela's injury is bad luck indeed but the window is now open for Gonzalez to make the most of this opportunity.

There were some other moves and updates:

• Mike Napoli has been released but plans are in place to resign him. Discussions have taken place about Napoli starting the season at Triple-A Columbus but credit to him, Napoli doesn't want to block a prospect's path to the majors by eating into their playing time. A decision will be reached within the next few days if he decides to try his luck elsewhere. 
• Greg Allen was reassigned to Triple-A Columbus to start the year, as expected. The club want him playing everyday at this stage in his career, not just getting one at-bat a week off the bench. I like this decision and it will benefit Allen's development long-term. He shouldn't be rushed and the Indians don't necessarily need him right now.

• Right-handed reliever Alexi Ogando was re-assigned to minor league camp and will start the year in Columbus as well. The 34 year-old pitched 10 innings this spring with 13 strikeouts and 5 walks, with a 1.80 ERA, and by all accounts made a good impression with the management. Apparently the organisation plans to use him as a starter for the Clippers. Francona said, "We want to get him stretched out at Triple-A. The reason being he can always pitch out of the bullpen, but if he starts to get stretched he has a better chance and he can use all his pitches, including his change up." If Ogando can be utilised as a starter, he could be a very valuable depth asset in the rotation.
• No decision has been made on outfielders Tyler Naquin and Rob Refsnyder yet, but Naquin is considered by most to be the leading candidate. I only wrote recently about the 26 year-old and his chances of breaking camp with the team. The choice on who to choose will likely depend as much on their performances as it does on the health of  Michael Brantley and Brandon Guyer, and if they are ready to open the season. The decision on how many relievers to start the year with will also probably have an impact on Naquin and Refsnyder's immediate future.
• Finally, left-handed pitcher Ryan Merritt, who is out of options, is still wondering where his place will be. He'll likely hear what Francona's decision will be today. Merritt has not enjoyed the best spring training, throwing 9.2 innings and surrendering 17 hits and 10 earned runs, for a bloated 9.31 ERA, to go along with 10 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Alarmingly he gave up 4 home runs in this short period of time. I've always liked Merritt a lot but I think his future will be somewhere else.

That's a lot of excitement for one day, and I expect we'll start to see the final decisions come through over the course of this weekend. 

Thursday's trip to Seattle to start the season can't come soon enough.

2018 Spring Training Wishlist: Part 2

Rejoice! Pitchers and catchers report today. The long winter is almost over and spring is nearly upon us.

With the advent of spring, our attention turns to the Indians and their roster. Despite the lack of activity in Cleveland this winter (unless you're the Cavs), there will be one position battle worth watching over the next few weeks.

The Indians' stacked rotation is the envy of nearly every other team in the league but with that brings it's own share of problems. The club can only carry so many starting pitchers at one time, and despite some clubs toying with the idea of 6-man rotations, even the Indians aren't likely to be go down that route, such is the quality of the starters they possess.

At least a couple of guys are going to be disappointed when Opening Day rolls around.

There is one pitcher on the staff who arguably has more to gain from this competition and he's the man we affectionately call Sunshine, the guy with the best head of hair in the state of Ohio, Mr Mike Clevinger.

Mighty Mike - What Are His Chances?

In order for Clevinger to cement himself as a full-time member of the rotation, he has his work cut out for him.

Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer lead the way at the front, locking down the first three spots. The trio went a combined 53-19 last season, with a 3.20 ERA. Not to mention that Kluber won his second AL Cy Young award and Carrasco finished 4th in that race too. Bauer showed tremendous development, raising his strikeout rate and decreasing his walk rate as well.

Basically, Clevinger is unlikely to beat those guys out of a job before April.

Instead, Clevinger should be targeting the trio of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt.

It can be argued that Salazar has more talent than Clevinger. He's been a strikeout machine throughout his career and he has more experience too. Issues with durability have always plagued the 28 year-old, though I expect he did enough last year to keep his place in the rotation to begin 2018. Salazar should feel pretty comfortable about ownership of the fourth rotation spot. For now at least.

Perhaps the largest obstacle standing in Clevinger's way is the veteran Josh Tomlin. At this stage we all know what Tomlin is and what Tomlin does. He takes the ball every fifth day and gives the the Indians a somewhat decent chance to win games. Tomlin is durable and he’s cost-effective (cheap). For a mid-market team like the Indians, players like Tomlin provide immense value. The 'Little Cowboy' will be difficult to shift from that fifth and final position.

Ryan Merritt is the outsider looking in. The soon-to-be 26 year-old Texan made four starts for the Tribe in 2017 and performed well, picking up two wins with a 1.74 ERA. He had a very successful year in the minors too, all but one start pitched from Triple-A Columbus. What is the ace up Merritt's sleeve that warrants his contention? He's out of minor league options so the Indians are forced to make a decision on his future. Do they trade him or give him a legitimate shot at being a starter? I imagine Merritt's future with the Tribe will begin in the bullpen, but I'd hate to see him depart the club without getting a chance at cracking the rotation.

These three men are fine pitchers, all of whom would almost certainly win jobs on the majority of major league rotations. With that being said, I feel it is Clevinger who has earned the opportunity to make that fifth starting spot his own.

Last season, on a rotation of excellent pitchers, Clevinger consistently impressed. He finished 2017 with a 12-6 record and a 3.11 ERA over 121.2 innings in 27 games (21 of which were starts). His walks were a cause for concern, as he posted a rate of 4.44 walks per nine innings, but he didn't give up many hits, which balanced everything out nicely. He limited opposition batters to a .210 average and recorded a 1.25 WHIP.

There's an argument to be made that, despite his proven ability at the MLB level, Clevinger should start the 2018 season in the minors. The native Floridian isn't eligible to test free agency until 2022 but if he spends the first six weeks of the season in Columbus, the Indians are rewarded with an extra year of his services, extending his stay until 2023 at least.

Another factor: Clevinger still has a minor league option remaining, whereas Salazar, Tomlin, and Merritt do not, giving them an advantage at this time of year. Clevinger doesn't have to be on the roster. The other guys do. Or rather, the Indians have to make them fit at least.

Clevinger can make the decision harder for the Indians' staff if he performs well this spring. If he can force himself into their thoughts through his work on the mound, then maybe he will begin the year in the rotation. I can see the benefit of keeping him on standby in Columbus but if he's MLB ready now, why not play him? Recent history has shown he's certainly an upgrade over Tomlin, and he's more proven at the MLB level than Merritt.

Preseason projections indicate the Indians facing little competition from their division rivals, just like last year. So I understand why the club would be okay with getting through April and May without Clevinger; it certainly looks like they won't need him, and will win their fair share of games without his help, with Tomlin likely a fixture at the back-end of the rotation.

However, if I was Terry Francona, I would want my best team on the field from day one.

That team would, and should, include Mike Clevinger.

2017 Spring Training Wishlist: Part 3

Here we are, at the third and final part of my look at the Indians ahead of Spring Training, and what I want to see from them before the 2017 season begins.

In this installment I'll look at the pitching staff, an area of real strength for the Indians in recent years.

Bullpen Just Got Better

When you have a guy like Andrew Miller in your pen, then you're already looking pretty good. But when you add a proven arm like Boone Logan, then things are looking downright unfair for opposition hitters. Pair those guys with the likes of Cody Allen, Dan Otero and Bryan Shaw, and you've got the makings of an elite bullpen.

When the Indians confirmed the signing of Logan on 7th February to a 1 year deal rumored to be worth $5.5 million, the team upgraded in a big way. Logan has a superb record against left handers, with lefties batting just .139 against him in 2016, with a brilliant .222 on-base percentage too. And this is from a guy who pitched in Colorado, a notorious hitter's haven with that mile-high air they have. With Miller planning to pitch in the World Baseball Classic, we might see Logan used a bit more this spring, although I'd rather he be saved for the season ahead ideally.

Ultimately there isn't a lot of competition in the bullpen this spring, not for key contributors at least. A couple of fringe pitchers will be hoping to catch on with the team when they fly to Texas for Opening Day. Guys like Zach McAllister, Ryan Merritt, Nicky Goody, Shawn Armstrong and Carlos Frias (plus a few more) will be battling it out for the final spot or two, depending on how many arms Francona wants to break camp with. Despite Merritt's postseason heroics I think the skipper will opt for the veteran McAllister, provided Zach doesn't self-destruct in Arizona, plus he's just been paid handsomely by avoiding arbitration. However I would like to see Merritt in particular have a great spring, as I'm keen to see him pitch some meaningful innings this season. Start and you mean to go on and all that.

Rotation: Steady As A Rock

The Indians return the entirety of their rotation for 2017 and there's not going to be a great deal of competition here, provided everyone stays healthy. The group is led by ace Corey Kluber, who narrowly missed out on winning the 2016 AL Cy Young award. Kluber had a stellar season, pitching 215 innings over 32 starts to a 3.14 ERA for an AL leading 149 ERA+ and 3.26 FIP.

Kluber is flanked by Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, both exciting and valuable pitchers who suffered from health issues in 2016, yet still provided meaningful innings. They'll both be out to prove their health and abilities are back to 100%.

Backing up the rotation are current incumbents Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, who had decent if not spectacular campaigns last year. Despite Bauer's notorious drone issues (and dubious political views), he actually had a solid 2016; his walks were down to a career low 3.32 BB/9, a nice trend for any pitcher to continue going forward, and his groundball rate increased to 48,7%, which was nice to see from Bauer considering his past history of giving up homers. Tomlin had a very impressive start to 2016, going undefeated until the end of May, but when the dog days of summer took hold Tomlin fell off a cliff; he lost 5 straight in August and his ERA and home runs rocketed.

The challengers to Bauer and Tomlin are likely to be Mike Clevinger, Cody Anderson and Ryan Merritt. I rate Clevinger a lot and would really enjoy seeing him push for a spot in the rotation. The 26 year-old Jacksonville native had mixed results in Cleveland last year, compiling a 5.26 ERA in 17 appearances, 10 of which were starts. He found a lot more success in Columbus, with a 3.00 ERA in 17 starts, with an 11-1 record over that span. A hot spring in 2017 would earn him another look at cracking the big league roster but he'll have to be lights-out to get there.

Whereas Anderson is very much on the outside looking in. This time last year he was a shoe-in for a rotation spot after a breakout 2015 campaign (3.05 ERA in 15 starts, for a 141 ERA+). However a sub-par 2016 followed and now his future looks cloudy. Is he better off aiming for a bullpen spot or biding his time in Columbus as a starter? Anderson had off-season elbow surgery so hopefully he's put his 2016 demons to rest and he can return to that 2015 form that made him so effective. He'll need some impressive spring showings to prove his best days are still ahead of him.

I've mentioned Merritt before but honestly I don't see him making the rotation until later in the year, even if he has a quality spring. Ideally he can impress over the next couple of months and turn that momentum into a June/July call-up with an aim to stick around permanently.

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That's a wrap, and just in time too as pitchers and catchers reported yesterday, the first sign that baseball is officially back. We've got just under 2 months of exhibition baseball to enjoy/endure before the Indians start their work for real. It's a pleasure to have them back.

Thanks for reading.