ALDS Review: Unfulfilled Potential

Fans at Progressive Field began to file out before the end of last night's winner-takes-all Game 5 of the American League Division Series. In a game of such magnitude, when the stakes are at their highest, it is inconceivable to contemplate leaving before the final out of the ninth inning. But as Game 5 neared it's conclusion Indians fans knew deep down that the well of magic had been exhausted. 2017 was not to be their season after all, thanks to a determined Yankees side that came from behind to take the series.

It's going to take some time for Cleveland to digest what happened and plan for the future. There's going to be a great deal of analysis between now and the Winter Meetings about what went wrong. I'm certainly not the man with all the answers but nevertheless, I'm going to look at a couple of talking points from this disappointing ALDS defeat and the Indians' premature end to their season.

Talking About Terry

History has proven that it's often unwise to question Terry Francona's man-management abilities as he has repeatedly made fools of those who second-guessed his decisions. But we wouldn't be sports fans if we didn't debate and discuss those decisions, always pondering the "what-ifs." For instance, why did Francona commit to Jason Kipnis in center field when Austin Jackson, a veteran of the outfield, was available? Kipnis is a fine player, a guy who wears his heart on his sleeve, but a center fielder he is not, despite the epic catch he made in Game 1. This proved to be true when he made a catch in the field last night but didn't have the arm to nail a runner from 180 feet away. Not only did he lack the arm strength, but also the know-how and awareness to restrain himself from such an attempt. Kipnis is a second baseman and, if deemed ready for action, probably should have started at second. That way Jose Ramirez could have gone back to third base and Giovanny Urshela, basically a rookie, wouldn't have been risked in such high-leverage games. Kipnis started all 5 ALDS games in center and after his performances there, most would agree that he doesn't belong, despite his best efforts.

Another interesting case was Francona's decision to start Trevor Bauer in Game 1, which was rewarded with a comprehensive win. However this meant we saw Bauer feature in two games, and Carlos Carrasco in just one. Most casual fans and observers would have argued that it should have been Carrasco given that nod, and not Bauer, but then again you can't argue with the results in Game 1. Carrasco had a superb 2017 and personally I would have preferred to see him given two starts over Bauer, but that is easy to say in hindsight. Perhaps even a combination effort from Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin would have been better suited over a tired Bauer in Game 4, when he couldn't get out of the second inning after the Yankees ran up his pitch count before striking for 4 unearned runs. Perhaps Bauer returning on short rest was the cause for his Game 4 performance and ultimately the Indian's defeat (although those errors didn't help!), so you have to question if that could have been avoided. I am not an MLB manager so forgive my shortsightedness as I expect Francona had ALCS and World Series rotation planning in mind when he made his choices, but I would have opted for Carrasco.

The Walking Wounded

Injuries ravaged this Indians team all season long and they were particularly cruel to the team as October neared. Michael Brantley was never really healthy all season, despite recovering in time to make it onto the postseason roster. Lonnie Chisenhall was a similar case, in and out of the lineup all season long with a myriad of afflictions and received just 7 ALDS plate appearances.

The cruelest blow came to Bradley Zimmer, the rookie who had taken complete control of center field in 2017 and the Indians were really hurt by his absence, hence the Kipnis experiment. And of course Kipnis was injured for large portions of the year also, so perhaps his postseason struggles can be attributed to his late return. Finally, Edwin Encarnacion was felled in Game 2 and had to be helped from the field with a sprained right ankle. He wouldn't return until the decisive Game 5 and even as a DH you could tell he was struggling. The Tribe really could have used their slugger in the elimination games he missed; Encarnacion batted .258 with 38 home runs and 107 RBIs in his first season with the Indians.

The strange thing is the Indians were afflicted by injuries to the rotation in 2016 but this year the pitching staff were left largely unscathed. The biggest issue the group faced was an early back injury that bothered Corey Kluber in the season's first couple of months. In his two ALDS starts, something was clearly off with Kluber and memories of that back injury started to resurface for me. He was still out there on the mound working away, but something wasn't quite right, just like in April and May when he was forced onto the DL.

Did Kluber just under-perform or was it the injury that affected his poor postseason performances? "I don't think I need to get into details about it... I was healthy enough to go out there and try to pitch." When he says try to pitch, it makes me think something definitely wasn't right. Should he have been more honest and stepped aside to recover? Athletes at such high levels of competition rarely ever want to show weakness and remove themselves from further harm, and historically baseball has been one of the worst examples of this. We won't know for sure until time has allowed the postseason autopsy to be completed but I'd like think that the Indians wouldn't allow their ace to risk causing himself further damage, to himself and the team.

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And so history closes it's book on the Cleveland Indians' 2017 season and it's over far too early for Tribe fans. The historic unbeaten streak is undoubtedly the highlight of the season and hopefully Kluber will be awarded another AL Cy Young award. Jose Ramirez's breakthrough campaign captured our hearts and even though this team couldn't ultimately deliver, they're still a lovable bunch and their window to win is far from closed.

Congratulations must go to the Yankees, considered the underdogs before the series began. They fought tooth and nail to stave off elimination and ended up advancing to the ALCS against Houston. The only silver lining to their victory is that I saw them in the flesh this year. It won't make me very popular but I would like to see them go on and win it all now - just to say I saw the team that won the World Series!

There will be much discussion now about where this Indians team is headed and some key decisions to make about their futures; do they retain Carlos Santana? What about Michael Brantley and Bryan Shaw? Could Kipnis be traded? We'll spend the rest of the fall and all of winter debating this. Until then, try and enjoy the rest of the playoffs, even if the Indians are no longer there.

Thanks for reading.

Unfinished Business: ALDS Preview

I have to admit, it's a strange world when postseason baseball begins and it is the Indians who are considered the favorites and not the historically rich Yankees. Coming off the back of 2016, when the Tribe came so agonizingly close to winning it all, it would have been a disaster if they missed out on October baseball this year. But we had no reason to fear, not even during those inconsistent first months; all that matters now is that they're back, having retooled and upgraded (thank you Edwin and Jay). Our expectations this month pretty much start and end with a championship. Anything less will be considered a failure.

First of all they must get past the vaunted Bronx Bombers, a team I saw in person this season during my time in New York. I said previously that the Indians are considered favorites but in truth the gap between the two sides is very close. The Yankees are arguably ahead of schedule; no one really expected them to be here in 2017, not yet anyway. Thanks to Aaron Judge's monstrous rookie season, and some fine pitching and hitting from his teammates, the New York side have somewhat crashed the party and won't hesitate to throw everything they have at an Indians team with loftier ambitions than this time last year. 

When Cleveland took on Boston in the 2016 ALDS, I just wanted them to give a good account of themselves, to push the Red Sox to a game 5 and see if they could ride their luck into the ALCS. The fact that the Tribe went on to sweep Boston out of the series was something I never even dreamed of. In 2017 the expectations are much higher and progress past Aaron Judge and his merry men is expected, perhaps even demanded.

Game 1 starts tonight and Terry Francona has made the surprising choice to start Trevor Bauer on the mound and not Corey Kluber. Bauer did beat the Yankees twice in August though, holding them to just a single run in each match-up: 7 innings at Progressive Field on August 4th, then 6 innings at Yankee Stadium on August 30th. But despite his recent success the majority of fans would have expected Kluber to get the nod for the opener. However Francona clearly trusts Bauer, and his bullpen, to get the job done and save Kluber for game 2. It gives the ace a full 5 days of rest ahead of his start and ensures he could feature in a pivotal game 5 if necessary. And with a bullpen that includes the likes of Danny Salazar, Mike Clevinger and Andrew Miller, why wouldn't you be confident? Francona made excellent use of Miller last October and earned many plaudits for it. Now he has even more talent at his disposal and knows full well that to be successful in the playoffs, the guy who starts the game doesn't necessarily have to finish it.

Game 3 would likely see Carlos Carrasco make his first ever postseason appearance, after cruelly being left on the sidelines in 2016 thanks to injury. Every Tribe fan is excited to see Carlos on the big stage and combined with Kluber, that's a two-headed fire-breathing pitching dragon that opposition teams will not want to face. Josh Tomlin is available to pitch game 4 if called upon.

The Yankees send Sonny Gray to the mound tonight, a pitcher I've always admired. Backed by that powerful lineup which led the league in total home runs, with 241 of them, Gray will feel confident facing the Tribe. He pitched against Cleveland three times this season, throwing 16.2 innings with a 4.86 ERA, and Tribe hitters batted just .224 against him. A stern test awaits the Indians for sure but nothing they haven't seen, and conquered, before.

The Indians will ultimately be hoping to make quick work of New York, just like they did against Boston in 2016. I feel this series will be closer than last year's ALCS but overall I still expect Cleveland to emerge victorious. Ideally with plenty of rest ahead of the next opponent.