ALDS Review: Astros Annihilation

Another baseball season draws to a close in Cleveland, not with a bang but a whimper.

Just like last year, the Indians exit the postseason at the first stage, this time swept out of the American League Division Series by the reigning champion Houston Astros. It was upsetting to see the Tribe play just a single playoff game at home, and even more frustrating to watch them throw the game away (literally).

There will be a great deal of questions asked of this team after such a disappointing conclusion to the season. Was the Indians lackluster divisional race a cause for their uninspiring performance? The 103-win Astros were pushed all the way in their race for the AL West by Oakland, keeping them sharp as they entered October. The Indians on the other hand coasted to their divisional title, perhaps dulling their ability to rise to the playoff atmosphere that Houston thrived upon.

In the Indians' defense, they were up against a team stacked head-to-toe with quality, with no visible weaknesses in any department. The Astros pitching was particularly dominant, and entered the postseason ranked first in team ERA (3.11), starters ERA (3.16), bullpen ERA (3.03) and strikeouts (1,687) for the entire league. Their dominance showed through in each game, severely limiting the Tribe hitters.

It's no wonder the Indians batted a pitiful .144 (13-for-90) for 6 total runs in the entire series.

Two of those runs came directly from the bat of Francisco Lindor, as the star shortstop hit two solo homers. In fact, Lindor was the only player to perform well at the plate for Cleveland, batting .364 in 11 at-bats, scoring 3 runs, basically accounting for 50% of the offensive output. The 24 year-old face of the franchise never let his head drop.

On the other hand you have Jose Ramirez, Cleveland's most dangerous hitter during the regular season, reduced to a shell of his usual self against Houston. In 11 at-bats, Ramirez couldn't record a single hit and dating back to last season, Ramirez is 2-for-31 in postseason play.

He wasn't alone in his struggles. The Tribe's other big bats like Edwin Encarnacion (1-for-10), Josh Donaldson (1-for-11) and Yonder Alonso (0-for-6) also underperformed. Even the consistent Michael Brantley was limited to just 2 hits in 10 at-bats, in what could well be his final games in an Indians uniform.

The lineup will take the brunt of the criticism for this postseason letdown, as they rightly should. You don't need a degree to know that scoring runs will win you games and sadly the Tribe hitters just couldn't get it done against an admittedly superior Astros team.

However, the Indians' pitching staff must take their share of the responsibility as well, as they were far from perfect.

Something was off right from the start of the series, when Corey Kluber took a beating in Houston to open game one. The ace of the staff never looked like his normal self and gave up three home runs in his 4.2 innings of work. He continued to leave the ball up in the zone and the Astros hitters punished him accordingly.

Thankfully Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, the starters for games two and three, were very effective. Carrasco lasted 5.1 innings, giving up 6 hits for 2 earned runs and kept the Tribe in the game. Clevinger was superb in his start, showing just how far he's progressed in 2018. Sunshine pitched 5 innings with 9 strikeouts, allowing just 3 hits and 1 earned run.

The biggest problem, as was so often the case this season, was when Carrasco and Clevinger handed the game over to the bullpen.

Cody Allen and Brad Hand were the two individuals who really suffered and were taken apart by the vaunted Astros lineup. Allen made two appearances, pitching a third of an inning in game one and two thirds of an inning in game three, and was diabolical, giving up 4 hits for 6 earned runs, two of them homers (one in each game). Considering this series was likely Allen's last time in a Cleveland uniform, it's a very somber and disappointing way for him to bow out.

Hand, considered the bullpen saviour in the season's final months, was also hit hard. He pitched an inning in game two and two thirds of an inning in the game three nightmare. The left-hander was stung for 3 hits and 2 earned runs altogether, including the three-run bomb by Carlos Correa that sent Tribe fans heading for the exits in game three.

Perhaps the performance that hurt Tribe fans the most came from Trevor Bauer. For so long this year a Cy Young-worthy starter with untouchable stuff, Bauer was reduced to pieces over the course of three relief appearances. Bauer walked out of the bullpen in each game and logged 4 innings in total, but gave up 7 hits and 3 earned runs. He saved the worst until last.

In the seventh inning with a narrow 2-1 lead, Bauer made an errant pickoff attempt that allowed Houston's Tony Kemp to reach second, and he later scored on a Jose Altuve grounder to tie the game at 2-2. Alex Bregman proceeded to chop a pitch back to the mound, where Bauer attempted to start the inning-ending double play, but his throw to Lindor at second base was wild, pulling the shortstop away from the bag, resulting in Bauer's second error of the inning and no outs on the play. The bases were then loaded to keep a double play opportunity alive but a 95-mph fastball way above the zone was pounced on by Marwin Gonzalez for a double that plated two more runners. It put the Astros ahead 4-2, and the game beyond the Indians' reach. A 6-run eighth inning meltdown by the rest of the bullpen put the final nail in the Tribe's 2018 coffin.

Where do the Indians go now? One thing for certain is some significant roster turnover in the near future, as a number of key players become free agents this month. I will be paying close attention this winter to the club's activity but for the next few weeks, I'll enjoy the rest of the playoffs, sad in the thought of what might have been.

Thanks for reading this season.

Regular Season Review: Pitchers

After previously recapping the 2018 season for the Tribe's position players, today we focus on both the rotation and the bullpen, and how those two groups fared over the course of the year.

The Starters

Corey Kluber - 33 games, 2.89 ERA, 20-7, 215 IP, 222 SO, 34 BB, 3.12 FIP, 151 ERA+
Trevor Bauer - 28 games, 2.21 ERA, 12-6, 175.1 IP, 221 SO, 57 BB, 2.44 FIP, 198 ERA+
Carlos Carrasco - 32 games, 3.38 ERA, 17-10, 192 IP, 231 SO, 43 BB, 2.94 FIP, 129 ERA+
Mike Clevinger - 32 games, 3.02 ERA, 13-8, 200 IP, 207 SO, 67 BB, 3.52 FIP, 145 ERA+
Shane Bieber - 20 games, 4.55 ERA, 11-5, 114.2 IP, 118 SO, 23 BB, 3.23 FIP, 96 ERA+
Adam Plutko - 17 games, 5.28 ERA, 4-5, 76.2 IP, 60 SO, 23 BB, 6.10 FIP, 83 ERA+

The Bullpen (stats with Indians only)

Cody Allen - 70 games, 4.70 ERA, 27 SV, 67 IP, 80 SO, 33 BB
Brad Hand - 28 games, 2.28 ERA, 8 SV, 27.2 IP, 41 SO, 13 BB
Andrew Miller - 37 games, 4.24 ERA, 2 SV, 34 IP, 45 SO, 16 BB
Dan Otero -  61 games, 5.22 ERA, 1 SV, 58.2 IP, 43 SO, 5 BB
Adam Cimber - 28 games, 4.05 ERA, 20 IP, 7 SO, 7 BB
Neil Ramirez - 47 games, 4.54 ERA, 41.2 IP, 51 SO, 18 BB
Oliver Perez - 51 games, 1.39 ERA, 32.1 IP, 43 SO, 7 BB
Tyler Olson  - 43 games, 4.94 ERA, 27.1 IP, 40 SO, 12 BB
Josh Tomlin - 32 games, 6.14 ERA, 70.1 IP, 46 SO, 12 BB
Zach McAllister - 41 games, 4.97 ERA, 41.2 IP, 34 SO, 10 BB

When four of your starting pitchers rank in the top 8 for ERA in the American League, your team are probably looking pretty good, and that has been the case for this 2018 Indians staff. Led by two legitimate Cy Young candidates, the rotation carried the team on their back as the bullpen, a source of strength in recent years, underperformed and required an overhaul mid-season.

Corey Kluber has been a dominant force on the mound for the past five years yet somehow, this is the first time he’s won 20 games. Even if you discount pitcher wins as an ancient and meaningless statistic, it’s still a remarkable achievement. Kluber’s strikeouts were his lowest total since 2013 and he surrendered 25 home runs this year, the highest mark of his career. However, it did little to deter his effectiveness and he is still among the very best pitchers in baseball. We are lucky to have him and he’ll go down as one of the Tribe greats when all is said and done.

Trevor Bauer took a significant step forward in his development last year but this season he was a revelation, and if it weren’t for his untimely injury in mid-August, he could have convincingly walked away with this year’s AL Cy Young award. As it is, he will likely lose out to the Rays’ Blake Snell or maybe even Kluber, but Bauer has still had an enormously impressive campaign, setting career-best stats in ERA (2.21), strikeouts (221 in 175.1 IP), walks (57), WHIP (1.089) and home runs given up (just 9). The hope now is that he’s recovered completely in time for the playoffs and can have a major impact, either as a starter or out of the bullpen.

Carlos Carrasco followed his impressive 2017 season with another remarkable campaign, leading the team in total strikeouts with 231 punchouts. Carrasco finished fourth in the vote for the 2017 AL Cy Young award and he should be included in the overall picture yet again, albeit a longshot to win. It seems like only yesterday that the Venezuelan was a wild and unpredictable prospect struggling to crack the rotation, so it’s amazing to think how consistent he’s been over the past four years.

Mike Clevinger made tremendous strides in 2017, his first full year in the Tribe rotation, and he has progressed even further in his sophomore season. It’s an impressive feat for any pitcher to crack the 200 strikeout mark and all of his other major statistics saw improvement, despite his walks and home runs increasing (that can be attributed to the extra innings he pitched though). Clevinger has cemented himself as a fan favorite, with his Sunshine nickname and flowing locks to match, and his performances during his three seasons in Cleveland have warranted the praise.

Rounding out the back of the rotation was a combination of Shane Bieber and Adam Plutko. Bieber is still only 23 years-old and was ranked fourth among the Indians’ top 20 prospects prior to his debut. The rookie with the outstanding command (118 SO to 23 BB, an impressive 5.13 SO/BB rate) joined the team in late May and was a reliable presence throughout the summer. He took his shares of knocks like most rookies do, but the signs are encouraging in the long run. Plutko, a 26 year-old right-hander who made the briefest of appearances in 2016, took the mound when called upon and held his own as a fifth starter, often serviceable but ultimately unremarkable.

The Terry Francona era will be defined by the incredible starting pitchers he’s had at his disposal and under his leadership the Indians’ rotation have been one of the strongest in the league each year. 2018 was no different and together the grouped ranked ninth in league ERA, fourth in the AL, with a 3.77 mark. Perhaps the story of this season will revolve around the foursome of Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco and Clevinger, as the group achieved history, helping the Indians become the first team in Major League history to have four starting pitchers record 200 or more strikeouts in a single season.

Moving on to the bullpen, it was an altogether different experience. The relief corps got off to an awful start to 2018, ranking as one of the worst groups in the entire league and it took a big mid-season trade to right the sinking ship.

The backbone of the Tribe’s bullpen has been Cody Allen and Andrew Miller but both of these star relievers suffered setbacks.

Allen, for years a reliable and calm presence, appeared rattled in many of his relief outings and anxiety crept into the fanbase as each hit and walk was given up. He also succumbed to the home run bug, surrendering a career high 11 homers, and as each ball left the yard the fans’ faith in Allen diminished a bit further. His strikeouts were down (career-low 80 SO), his walks were up (career-high 33 BB) and his ERA of 4.70 is the highest in his career so far. No longer can we consider Allen the default closer on this team, especially as the 29 year-old approaches free agency, but the Tribe’s all-time saves leader can still be a very useful late-inning reliever if he can maintain control of his breaking stuff.

Miller, one of the elite relief arms in the game, struggled with injuries all year and never looked 100%. Shoulder inflammation held him back from being the impact reliever we became accustomed to, but he also spent time on the disabled list to treat his knee and hamstring as well. A 1.86 ERA over 10 games in August showed signs of a return to form but the left-hander returned to the DL at the end of that month with another setback, for a third time. The Tribe were fortunate that their race to seal a postseason berth was simple and they could be patient with Miller’s recovery, all in the hope that he can recapture his magic in October.

With Allen and Miller misfiring, it was Brad Hand’s introduction that began the process of curing the bullpen’s issues. Hand was acquired from San Diego (along with Adam Cimber) in exchange for top catching prospect Francisco Mejia and the 28 year-old lefty made an instant impact. The two-time All Star pitched in 28 games for the Tribe and recorded 41 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. He’s been everything Indians fans expected and if Allen or Miller are able to help him out, the combination of two or even all three of them would make for an unhittable group in the playoffs.

Perhaps the only shining light outside of Hand has been Oliver Perez. The 36 year-old journeyman left-hander has snuck under the radar in 2018 to record an impressive season, with a 1.39 ERA over 51 games, with 43 strikeouts. Perez signed with the team in June after his release from the Yankees and was able to immediately insert himself into the bullpen as a stabilizing presence.

Unfortunately the rest of the group were not so effective, and the core guys who remained in the pen most of the year all suffered disappointing seasons.

In his previous two years with the Indians, Dan Otero had been a reliable option for Terry Francona but the 33 year-old suffered in 2018, like so many of his fellow relievers. All of his major statistics increased (not in the good way) and his home runs doubled from last year (6 in 2017 compared to 12 this year), as did his ERA (2.85 in 2017, 5.22 this season). The right-hander could potentially be in Cleveland for another two years, so he’ll be hoping to rebound in 2019.

Neil Ramirez surrendered 9 home runs in 41.2 innings and although his regular season performance improved from 2017 (split between the Giants and Mets), it’s unlikely the Indians will be clamoring to reacquire him in free agency.

Tyler Olson in particular crashed back to earth, after his incredible 0.00 ERA season in 2017. The left-hander was never going to repeat that sort of production but he’ll be very annoyed with himself at his bloated 4.94 ERA.

Adam Cimber joined the team as part of the deal for Hand but the submarine hurler wasn’t very productive in the 20 innings he featured in for the Indians, and failed to find much of a rhythm.

And finally, Josh Tomlin. What else is there left to say about Tomlin? He transitioned from a starter into a full-time member of the bullpen in May but the change did little to help his performances. The 33 year-old made a handful of spot starts in September but you get the sense is time in Cleveland has come to an end, especially considering he is a free agent next year.

Altogether the Tribe used 24 different players in relief, most of them in the first half of the season as Terry Francona desperately searched for solutions. It got to the stage where the Tribe were forced to play anyone available, hoping someone would stick. Even Brandon Guyer pitched an inning (a scoreless one at that). Despite the addition of Hand, even he couldn't cure the bullpen's woes single-handedly, as the reliever's group ERA of 4.60 ranked as the sixth worst in the entire league, behind the cellar-dwellers like the Tigers and White Sox.

-----------------------------------------------

Ultimately the Indians will rely on their vaunted rotation if they are to achieve success this postseason. Unlike 2016, they no longer have that lights-out bullpen to fall back on, and so Francona will trust in his starters to carry the load each night. If Allen, Miller, Hand and company can conjure some October magic, perhaps this group can carry Cleveland to that elusive third World Series title.

First they must contend with the Houston Astros and their formidable lineup and pitching staff. Game one gets underway tomorrow at the UK-friendly time of 2:05 pm EDT, which means I won't have to stay up all night.

Corey Kluber takes the mound against Justin Verlander, a pitcher the Indians have enjoyed success against in the past. Verlander didn't face the Indians this year but when he was still in Detroit in 2017, Cleveland took him apart over his four starts and 30 innings. The veteran allowed 19 earned runs, walking 12, and the Tribe crushed 5 home runs against him too. Confidence should be high heading into this match-up and fans will be eager to see if the lineup can repeat history and dismantle Verlander once more.

Regular Season Review: Position Players

Success breeds expectation, and when a city and its fanbase become accustomed to winning on a consistent basis, a regular season like the Indians just had can feel slightly underwhelming.

I suppose it can be considered a positive sign of how far the Tribe have progressed when a third straight AL Central title is only greeted with modest applause, and not city-wide celebrations. We all know that champagne sprayed in September doesn’t taste the same as it does in late October, and the players know this more than anybody.

It’s not their fault that people feel this way. Ever since Cleveland’s 2016 journey to game seven of the World Series, the only results that really matter are those that occur in the postseason. Nothing else matters once you’ve come so close to having it all.

With that said, their performance over the many months of the regular season deserves recognition. Despite the lack of competition in their division, the players still had a job to do and they achieved their mission. A number of guys have really excelled in 2018, and this review will focus on them and all the other contributors that helped build this Indians club into a contender.

The Lineup

Francisco Lindor SS - 745 PA, .277 BA, .352 OBP, .519 SLG, 38 HR, 92 RBI, 129 R, 70 BB, 25 SB
Michael Brantley LF - 631 PA, .309 BA, .364 OBP, .468 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 89 R, 48 BB, 12 SB
Jose Ramirez 3B - 698 PA, .270 BA, .387 OBP, .552 SLG, 39 HR, 105 RBI, 110 R, 106 BB, 34 SB
Edwin Encarnacion DH - 579 PA, .246 BA, .336 OBP, .474 SLG, 32 HR, 107 RBI, 74 R, 63 BB, 3 SB
Yonder Alonso 1B - 574 PA, .250 BA, .317 OBP, .421 SLG, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 64 R, 51 BB, 0 SB
Yan Gomes C - 435 PA, .266 BA, .313 OBP, .449 SLG, 16 HR, 48 RBI, 52 R, 21 BB, 0 SB
Melky Cabrera RF - 278 PA, .280 BA, .335 OBP, .420 SLG, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 28 R, 20 BB, 1 SB
Jason Kipnis 2B - 601 PA, .230 BA, .315 OBP, .389 SLG, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 65 R, 60 BB, 7 SB
Greg Allen CF - 291 PA, .257 BA, .310 OBP, .343 SLG, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 36 R, 14 BB, 21 SB

The undisputed leaders of this team are Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. This young pair have surpassed all expectations (and they were particularly high in Lindor’s case) and together they have emerged into legitimate MVP candidates. The dynamic duo continue to make their mark on history, and became the first teammates to reach 80 extra-base hits in consecutive seasons since Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio achieved it for the 1936-37 Yankees.

Lindor was voted to his third straight All Star game and somehow improved upon his performance from last season. This year he’s collected a career-high 38 home runs, putting to bed the notion that he would never develop into a power hitter, but it’s also encouraging that he’s been able to raise his batting average as well (.273 in 2017, to .277 this year). This team will go as far as Lindor carries them, in 2018 and in the years to come, and Indians fans everywhere will celebrate the day the club can tie him down to a long term deal. The alternative doesn't bear thinking about.

Ramirez emerged into one of the most dangerous hitters in the league last season but, like Lindor, has taken things to another level in 2018. His batting average has taken a slight dip but in exchange for a significant power increase, with a career-high 39 home runs. Perhaps the most welcome progression Ramirez has made is in his stolen base numbers, stealing an incredible 34 bags this year, good enough for fifth place in MLB. Now part of the elite 30/30 club, reserved exclusively for those with that unique combination of power and speed, he’s only the third player in the club’s history to achieve the feat (Joe Carter and Grady Sizemore the others) and first AL player since 2012. Jose's mixture of energy and power make for a dangerous mix, and the fans will be hoping he sticks around for a very long time.

Michael Brantley is another feelgood story of the season, and I could not be happier for him. When the Tribe picked up his contract for an extra year, many were sceptical due to his recent struggles with injury, but Brantley’s ability to remain in the lineup has been an absolute blessing. His consistency at the plate has kept the Tribe offense ticking along nicely and the veteran left fielder deservedly made the All Star team, for the third time.

The heavy hitters of Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso might not be able to keep up with Brantley when it comes to batting average, but they have contributed the sort of power numbers we wanted. Alonso has never been a prolific home run hitter, and last season was the first time in his career he hit double digits (with 28 HR split between Oakland and Seattle), so for him to collect 23 in his debut season with the Tribe is a respectable tally. Given Carlos Santana’s slight decline in offensive performance since his departure to Philadelphia (112 OPS+ in 2017, a 105 OPS+ in 2018), Yonder has performed admirably in his place.

Encarnacion's second season in Cleveland saw a small reduction in his numbers, but that’s mostly down to missing time with injuries, limiting him to 137 games. His 32 home runs continue his streak of seven consecutive years with 30+ homers but a slight concern is his decrease in walks, down from 104 in 2017 to 63 this year. Nevertheless, Edwin has still been a very capable and important player in 2018 and the Tribe will gladly accept the 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI from their first basemen and designated hitters.

If you took a poll in the spring, most fans would probably have agreed that the odds were slim of seeing the 2014 version of Yan Gomes ever again. However, the Brazilian backstop earned his first All Star call-up during a campaign that saw him recapture some of that form that made him one of the game’s best catchers just four year ago. His .266 batting average is a vast improvement from last year (.232) and he is still the defensive presence the Indians rely upon so much. Would-be base stealers know better than to run on Yan.

Brantley aside, the rest of the outfield were formed by committee to create a Frankenstein-like monster, composed of misfits and rookies. When Melky Cabrera was added to the Indians roster, most of us assumed he would be an insurance option at best but the 33 year-old surprised us all by developing into a key contributor. In the 78 games Cabrera featured in the field, the veteran soon endeared himself to the Tribe faithful. He was partnered for the majority of the season by either the rookie Greg Allen or veteran Rajai Davis in center, who both caused havoc on the bases, collecting 21 stolen bases each, helping the Indians rank first in the entire league with 135 SB total. Allen has been a fine defender in the field this season, although his bat is still developing, and Davis has been a solid presence when called upon, since his return to the team from 2016.

Jason Kipnis endured a difficult 2018 but the 31 year-old managed to stay healthy for the majority of the year. The second baseman, converted into a center fielder in September, struggled at the plate but never let his head drop, and did manage to turn things around a bit in the season’s final weeks (.282 average in the final couple of weeks with 6 of his 11 hits going for extra bases). His 18 home runs mark the second highest total of his career but he would be the first to admit his batting average is not where he would have liked it to be. A portion of the fanbase were starting to get on his back as the season progressed but as long as he’s on the team, I’ll continue to back him.

Other notable contributors include:

• Josh Donaldson, the Tribe’s new third baseman and former American League MVP, worked his way back to full health during his few weeks with the club, and he’ll be hoping he can carry his late season form into the postseason. In 60 plate appearances for the Tribe, Donaldson hit .280 with 3 home runs and 7 RBI, with a .400 OBP and a .520 slugging percentage.
• Brandon Guyer was used predominantly in right field this year, his third season in Cleveland, usually as part of a platoon but he wasn’t as effective as we might have hoped. Guyer’s ability to attack left-handers was always his calling card but this year Francona utilized him against righties too, but the results were about the same unfortunately (.233 BA against LHP and a .176 BA against RHP). The guy still has a talent for getting hit by pitches though, with 11 balls crashing into him this year!
• Roberto Perez, Erik Gonzalez, and Yandy Diaz were the handful of bench guys able to have an impact in the few games they featured in. Only Diaz really made an impression on me (although his renowned batspeed hasn’t translated into extra-base hits yet, with just 8 XBH in 143 PA) and Perez appears to have finally put to rest any notion that he could be an everyday catcher, despite his defensive abilities.
• Bradley Zimmer, Leonys Martin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin were all hit by the injury bug and missed significant time. In the case of Martin, the life-threatening illness that derailed his season caused him to make just 6 appearances for the Indians after his trade from Detroit (they were at least 6 excellent appearances). All of us wish him a speedy recovery and look forward to seeing him anchor the outfield next year. Zimmer might have some trouble reclaiming his place in center field once healthy, since the addition of Martin and promotion of Allen, and Naquin will once again have to work hard to even make the roster. Chisenhall is set to leave Cleveland as a free agent, having never really fulfilled his potential with the Indians. He’ll be hoping a club is willing to take a chance on his return to full health, and the Indians might even be tempted to keep him around if the price is right.

As the Indians enjoy their first significant rest period since the All-Star break, attention now turns towards the Houston Astros and game one of the ALDS. The reigning champions host the Tribe this Friday and the lineup will be busy studying the likes of Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, and the rest of their impressive pitching staff ahead of what many predict to be a tightly contested series.

I will have a pitchers regular season review coming up shortly. Thanks for reading.