Opening Day Roster Taking Shape

The Indians had a burst of roster activity yesterday when Terry Francona informed reporters that Rajai Davis and Erik Gonzalez will both be on the Opening Day roster. Davis will be the veteran outfield presence off the bench, with the ability to run and steal on the basepaths, and Gonzalez will be the Tribe's utility infielder, after he impressed this spring.

Gonzalez is the beneficiary of Giovanny Urshela's recent hamstring injury, meaning he will begin the season on the disabled list. Recovery is expected to take a couple of weeks. Both men have enjoyed successful pre-seasons but offensively, Urshela (.500/.512/.857 in 42 at-bats, 1.369 OPS) had the edge on Gonzalez (.300/.364/.350 in 40 at-bats, .714 OPS). Urshela's injury is bad luck indeed but the window is now open for Gonzalez to make the most of this opportunity.

There were some other moves and updates:

• Mike Napoli has been released but plans are in place to resign him. Discussions have taken place about Napoli starting the season at Triple-A Columbus but credit to him, Napoli doesn't want to block a prospect's path to the majors by eating into their playing time. A decision will be reached within the next few days if he decides to try his luck elsewhere. 
• Greg Allen was reassigned to Triple-A Columbus to start the year, as expected. The club want him playing everyday at this stage in his career, not just getting one at-bat a week off the bench. I like this decision and it will benefit Allen's development long-term. He shouldn't be rushed and the Indians don't necessarily need him right now.

• Right-handed reliever Alexi Ogando was re-assigned to minor league camp and will start the year in Columbus as well. The 34 year-old pitched 10 innings this spring with 13 strikeouts and 5 walks, with a 1.80 ERA, and by all accounts made a good impression with the management. Apparently the organisation plans to use him as a starter for the Clippers. Francona said, "We want to get him stretched out at Triple-A. The reason being he can always pitch out of the bullpen, but if he starts to get stretched he has a better chance and he can use all his pitches, including his change up." If Ogando can be utilised as a starter, he could be a very valuable depth asset in the rotation.
• No decision has been made on outfielders Tyler Naquin and Rob Refsnyder yet, but Naquin is considered by most to be the leading candidate. I only wrote recently about the 26 year-old and his chances of breaking camp with the team. The choice on who to choose will likely depend as much on their performances as it does on the health of  Michael Brantley and Brandon Guyer, and if they are ready to open the season. The decision on how many relievers to start the year with will also probably have an impact on Naquin and Refsnyder's immediate future.
• Finally, left-handed pitcher Ryan Merritt, who is out of options, is still wondering where his place will be. He'll likely hear what Francona's decision will be today. Merritt has not enjoyed the best spring training, throwing 9.2 innings and surrendering 17 hits and 10 earned runs, for a bloated 9.31 ERA, to go along with 10 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Alarmingly he gave up 4 home runs in this short period of time. I've always liked Merritt a lot but I think his future will be somewhere else.

That's a lot of excitement for one day, and I expect we'll start to see the final decisions come through over the course of this weekend. 

Thursday's trip to Seattle to start the season can't come soon enough.

There's Something About Tyler

When the Indians arrived in camp to begin their spring preparations ahead of the 2018 season, Tyler Naquin was on the very edge of my radar as a potential Indians player. In the race for a spot on this club’s Opening Day roster, I had hardly factored him in at all.

That was before last night. Settled on my sofa, on a cold Sunday evening to watch a split-squad Indians team take on the Mariners, with snow still on the ground in below-freezing England, Mr Naquin suddenly reappeared in my sights.

The 26 year-old outfielder, and former 1st-round draft pick, all of a sudden made me sit up and pay attention. Naquin swung the bat really well against Seattle, recording 3 hits in 4 at-bats, and recording 2 RBI in an Indians rout. Each swing of the bat felt like it had a real message behind it, every hit a statement, declaring that Naquin deserved your attention.

I hear what you’re saying though; It’s one meaningless spring training game, in a month full of meaningless games. You’re right, 100% correct, but for Naquin these games are anything but meaningless. These are the only games he’s got to make an impression. So far this spring, Naquin is slashing .282/.349/.538 (BA/OBP/SLG) for an .887 OPS, with 2 home runs and 6 RBI over the course of 39 at-bats.

Not bad, but not enough perhaps to really change Terry Francona’s mind (so far). When Naquin burst onto the scene in the spring of 2016, he slashed .397/.444/.759 for an 1.203 OPS, with 4 home runs, over 58 at-bats. It was enough to earn him a place as a starter on a team that made the World Series.

Two years later, Naquin’s prospects don’t look quite as rosy. The folks at Fangraphs predicted Naquin’s impact in 2018 to be limited at best. Their quick opinion was scathing, declaring Naquin a ‘complete non-factor’ ahead of this season. Ouch.

In their defense, his 2017 numbers don’t help his case much. Naquin had just 40 plate appearances with the Indians last year, despite being an integral piece of the successful 2016 squad (when he accumulated 365 at-bats). He spent the rest of 2017 at Triple-A Columbus, where he performed very well: 10 home runs, 51 RBI, a .298/.359/.475 slashline in 330 plate appearances.

However, when a center field position became available, the club turned to Bradley Zimmer, another bright outfield prospect, and never looked back. Zimmer looks to have usurped Naquin as the chosen center fielder of the Indians’ future.

Naquin’s future as an Indian isn’t over by any means. With Michael Brantley easing his way back into the lineup, and with doubts still surrounding his longevity, there could be room for Naquin to spell the veteran left fielder from time-to-time, maybe even replace him entirely if the injury bug strikes Brantley once again. Brantley’s return to health appears to be on schedule however, with Opening Day a distinct possibility, becoming more achievable with every passing day.

Therefore, a bench role would appear to be the most realistic target in Naquin’s crosshairs, especially for a junior player on a contending club like Cleveland.

However, he faces yet another obstacle in his path. Naquin is a left-handed hitter, and by all accounts a solid one. Unfortunately for him, the Indians lineup is already loaded with left-handed hitters, with all three projected starting outfielders (Brantley, Zimmer and Chisenhall) batting from that side of the plate.

What the Tribe could really benefit from is a right-handed hitter off the bench. Coincidentally, they had three such hitters vying for spots on this team: Rajai Davis, Melvin Upton Jr., and Brandon Barnes.

As of this afternoon, news just broke that Upton and Barnes are out of the running. Barnes was the quintessential darkhorse of the trio, and with a .143 batting average in 35 at-bats so far this spring, was unlikely to stick with the Indians when they broke camp. He has since been reassigned to the minors. Upton has been released entirely, the 33 year-old failing to make the impact he would have hoped. His numbers this spring (37 AB, .189/.250/.297 slashline, and 1 HR) tell the story.

Davis has realistic ambitions though, and the veteran is now Naquin's direct competition for a bench spot. Davis is also a known quantity, having made such a positive impact in 2016, so he likely had the advantage over Upton and Barnes, and possibly still possesses an edge over Naquin.

Ultimately, Naquin is probably going to have to rely on some breaks going his way if he wants to see significant playing time in Cleveland this year. Much as it pains me to say it, injuries to key players do happen, and a guy like Naquin needs to stay ready for that sort of opportunity.

It might be the only one he gets.

Bush League Ramble - 2018 Indians Preview

Steve Klein at the fantastic Bush League Ramble recently asked me to contribute a 2018 preview piece for his site and I was more than happy to oblige. Steve has collected a bunch of UK baseball fans to write about their teams this spring, and he requested I contribute the Indians piece.

Click the link below to see my preview and my thoughts on the Tribe ahead of the season opener in just a couple of weeks' time. Be sure to check out the rest of his site, there's a lot of quality writing.

https://bushleagueramble.com/2018/03/10/cleveland-indians-season-preview/