With the advent of spring, our attention turns to the Indians and their roster. Despite the lack of activity in Cleveland this winter (unless you're the Cavs), there will be one position battle worth watching over the next few weeks.
The Indians' stacked rotation is the envy of nearly every other team in the league but with that brings it's own share of problems. The club can only carry so many starting pitchers at one time, and despite some clubs toying with the idea of 6-man rotations, even the Indians aren't likely to be go down that route, such is the quality of the starters they possess.
At least a couple of guys are going to be disappointed when Opening Day rolls around.
There is one pitcher on the staff who arguably has more to gain from this competition and he's the man we affectionately call Sunshine, the guy with the best head of hair in the state of Ohio, Mr Mike Clevinger.
Mighty Mike - What Are His Chances?
In order for Clevinger to cement himself as a full-time member of the rotation, he has his work cut out for him.
Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer lead the way at the front, locking down the first three spots. The trio went a combined 53-19 last season, with a 3.20 ERA. Not to mention that Kluber won his second AL Cy Young award and Carrasco finished 4th in that race too. Bauer showed tremendous development, raising his strikeout rate and decreasing his walk rate as well.
Basically, Clevinger is unlikely to beat those guys out of a job before April.
Instead, Clevinger should be targeting the trio of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt.
It can be argued that Salazar has more talent than Clevinger. He's been a strikeout machine throughout his career and he has more experience too. Issues with durability have always plagued the 28 year-old, though I expect he did enough last year to keep his place in the rotation to begin 2018. Salazar should feel pretty comfortable about ownership of the fourth rotation spot. For now at least.
Perhaps the largest obstacle standing in Clevinger's way is the veteran Josh Tomlin. At this stage we all know what Tomlin is and what Tomlin does. He takes the ball every fifth day and gives the the Indians a somewhat decent chance to win games. Tomlin is durable and he’s cost-effective (cheap). For a mid-market team like the Indians, players like Tomlin provide immense value. The 'Little Cowboy' will be difficult to shift from that fifth and final position.
Ryan Merritt is the outsider looking in. The soon-to-be 26 year-old Texan made four starts for the Tribe in 2017 and performed well, picking up two wins with a 1.74 ERA. He had a very successful year in the minors too, all but one start pitched from Triple-A Columbus. What is the ace up Merritt's sleeve that warrants his contention? He's out of minor league options so the Indians are forced to make a decision on his future. Do they trade him or give him a legitimate shot at being a starter? I imagine Merritt's future with the Tribe will begin in the bullpen, but I'd hate to see him depart the club without getting a chance at cracking the rotation.
These three men are fine pitchers, all of whom would almost certainly win jobs on the majority of major league rotations. With that being said, I feel it is Clevinger who has earned the opportunity to make that fifth starting spot his own.
Last season, on a rotation of excellent pitchers, Clevinger consistently impressed. He finished 2017 with a 12-6 record and a 3.11 ERA over 121.2 innings in 27 games (21 of which were starts). His walks were a cause for concern, as he posted a rate of 4.44 walks per nine innings, but he didn't give up many hits, which balanced everything out nicely. He limited opposition batters to a .210 average and recorded a 1.25 WHIP.
There's an argument to be made that, despite his proven ability at the MLB level, Clevinger should start the 2018 season in the minors. The native Floridian isn't eligible to test free agency until 2022 but if he spends the first six weeks of the season in Columbus, the Indians are rewarded with an extra year of his services, extending his stay until 2023 at least.
Another factor: Clevinger still has a minor league option remaining, whereas Salazar, Tomlin, and Merritt do not, giving them an advantage at this time of year. Clevinger doesn't have to be on the roster. The other guys do. Or rather, the Indians have to make them fit at least.
Clevinger can make the decision harder for the Indians' staff if he performs well this spring. If he can force himself into their thoughts through his work on the mound, then maybe he will begin the year in the rotation. I can see the benefit of keeping him on standby in Columbus but if he's MLB ready now, why not play him? Recent history has shown he's certainly an upgrade over Tomlin, and he's more proven at the MLB level than Merritt.
Preseason projections indicate the Indians facing little competition from their division rivals, just like last year. So I understand why the club would be okay with getting through April and May without Clevinger; it certainly looks like they won't need him, and will win their fair share of games without his help, with Tomlin likely a fixture at the back-end of the rotation.
However, if I was Terry Francona, I would want my best team on the field from day one.
That team would, and should, include Mike Clevinger.
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