Trade Talk: Merrifield, Castellanos & Frazier

We've entered that period of the season and that so many writers love; the impending trade deadline, and with it comes speculation and rumors, enough to feed our appetite through the dog days of summer.

Now that we have an increasingly close deadline of July 31st, teams are looking at the standings to decide if they'll be sellers or buyers. For the 50-38 Indians, there is still a lot to play for this season, so I am anticipating them to approach the trade market from a buyer's perspective, even if a move to sell one of their prized assets might be beneficial (more on that later).

With that said, let's take a look at some of the potential targets the Tribe have been linked with in recent days:

Whit Merrifield - 2B & OF 

The Royals' first-time All-Star has been the one player I've seen mentioned most often when Indians trade rumors are discussed, and for good reason.

Merrifield, a second baseman and outfielder, is a reliable presence in the lineup who excels at making contact, effectively spraying hits to all areas of the field. The 30 year-old is currently batting .306/.355/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 11 home runs, 44 RBI and 13 stolen bases, and looks on track to complete another successful campaign.

In 2018 Merrifield raised his game in a big way, posting an impressive 5.2 WAR, only finishing behind the Cubs' Javier Baez among second basemen (Baez had 5.3 WAR). The star man in Kansas City slashed .304/.367/.438 for a career-high 120 wRC+ last year, with a league-leading 45 stolen bases, announcing himself on the national stage and attracting suitors around the league.

Competition to acquire him could be intense, but Cleveland should certainly be in the mix for Merrifield's services:

• He's cheap - Merrifield is on a very team-friendly contract, and isn't due to earn more than $6,750,000 a year until at least 2023.
• He's under club control for a while - signed until 2022 with a team-option for 2023. By then he'll be entering his age-34 season.

The Royals know what they have - our AL Central rivals have publicly said it would take a lot for them to consider trading him in his prime. However, with Kansas City's window to win still years away, at 30 years-old they would be wise to move Merrifield for a decent haul to upgrade their rebuilding process.

Perhaps a combination of top prospects like Triston McKenzie and Yu Chang would be enough to sway the Royals to part with their golden goose. I for one would love to have Merrifield join the team. His positional versatility is a huge asset, filling any weak spots the club could potentially face going forward.

Nicholas Castellanos - OF & DH

A move for Detroit's Castellanos would likely be short-term, as the 27 year-old is due to become a free agent after this season, but he could be the impact bat the Tribe would really benefit from.

Tyler Naquin, Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow and Greg Allen haven't established themselves as everyday players for the Indians, and have shared left field and right field between them with mixed results. The right-handed Castellanos could come in and automatically upgrade one of these positions, despite his known defensive limitations.

So far in 2019, Castellanos has slashed .282/.342/.468 over 366 plate appearances with 9 home runs and 33 RBI. The home run total is admittedly modest but he does lead the AL with 29 doubles, so he is still displaying that extra-base power into the gaps at least.

He isn't likely to cost too much in terms of prospects, which is good news for Castellanos admirers. His contract for this season is $9,950,000 so should be a pure rental, the price you pay in an effort to win now. I think adding a productive bat such as his could help give the Tribe the push they need if they want to consider themselves a real contender in 2019.

Clint Frazier - OF

Here's where things get difficult.

To acquire Frazier from the Yankees, it's going to cost Trevor Bauer. Like it or not, the price to bring the young outfielder back to Cleveland is high.

Trading Bauer this month, with the Indians still in contention for October baseball, will result in a backlash from the fanbase that may result in mutiny. Appearing to concede defeat in the race for the playoffs by trading one of your best pitchers will not go down well, not at all.

However, if you take stock of the whole situation, it could be beneficial for everyone. The Yankees crave an excellent starting pitcher and the Indians' outfield still needs upgrading to realistically compete against the top teams.

Let's look at Bauer first. In the last 18 months he has successfully reinvented himself as the everyman of Major League Baseball, thanks to his performances on and off the field, and is widely regarded by many as the ace of the Indians' staff. His 2018 season would have almost certainly resulted in a Cy Young award if he hadn't gotten injured (2.21 ERA, 221 strikeouts in 175.1 innings, 198 ERA+).

So why would the Tribe even consider trading him? Well, Bauer will be a free agent in 2021 and it's been widely reported that the Indians won't be in a financial position to retain his services, not at the price Bauer is expected to cost. Acknowledging this, perhaps the club would be wise to cash in whilst they can, even if it does appear defeatist upon first glance.

The 24 year-old former first-round Indians draft pick would be the prize in return but Frazier has experienced mixed emotions in New York. One of their most important hitters in the early months of 2019, when the Yankees' lineup was decimated with injuries, Frazier has recently found himself on the outside looking in, relegated to Triple-A once the regular starters returned to full health. Understandably frustrated to be playing at a level he's clearly outgrown, it widely rumoured Frazier will have a new home by the end of this month.

In 53 games and 191 at-bats, Frazier has slashed .283/.330/.513 with 11 homers and 34 RBI. He would automatically take over an outfield spot, probably in left, and be expected to contribute immediately.

I think the Indians would want more than just Frazier in a deal with the Yankees, and the Bronx Bombers would have to throw in a couple of other prospects to make it happen (Jonathan Loaisiga and Estevan Florial perhaps).

Selling Bauer does not equate to throwing in the towel, and I think it's important to recognize that. Cleveland's starting pitching depth is their biggest strength, and the team have shown this year that they have guys who can be called upon. Even without Bauer, a healthy Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and combo of Zach Plesac, Jefry Rodriguez, Adam Plutko and Aaron Civale might be enough to get by.

As sad as I would be to see Bauer leave (he's really endeared himself to me in recent times), I would be happy to welcome back Frazier and see his development for the Indians over the next five years.

Tribe Overcome Mighty Machado and O's

Despite dropping the first game of their series at Camden Yards, the Indians won their next three to clinch a four-game set against the Orioles, taking their overall record to 12-8. With a week still left in April, the Tribe have already established a slim lead in the AL Central, with all of their rivals currently sporting sub-.500 records.

Let's take a look at some of the talking points from the Indians' successful trip to Baltimore:

Rotation Domination

I'm running out of superlatives for this pitching staff. Everyone knew heading into this season that the strength of this team lay in the rotation, but it still astounds me that they can be this good.

Even in the Indians' 3-1 loss to begin the series on Friday, the quality of the pitching performance by Trevor Bauer was still better than what most of the league can trot out every fifth day. Bauer was on the hook for the loss that night, but his performance was decent: 7 innings of work, 5 hits and 3 walks given up for 3 earned runs, one of them a homer off the red-hot bat of Manny Machado (more on him later). Bauer had 6 strikeouts as well, and over four starts this year has a tidy total of 27 K's in 27 innings. He's off to a great start this season, and this loss is just a case of poor luck. The offense took a night off and couldn't support Bauer, and he was unfortunately matched up against Dylan Bundy, who was absolutely dealing Friday night, with that nasty slider of his.

Saturday afternoon saw the Tribe back on track, with Mike Clevinger having a career day on the mound, pitching his first complete game shutout in a 4-0 win. Clevinger, who has struggled with high pitch counts in the past, was completely locked in against the Orioles, utterly dominant for nine scoreless frames, allowing just 2 measly hits and 2 walks, with 3 strikeouts. It was a seriously impressive performance from the 27 year-old right-hander, who is off to an amazing start in 2018.

Corey Kluber got the nod on Sunday afternoon and pitched well in the Baltimore sunshine, picking up his third win of the campaign in the Indians' 7-3 victory. Kluber lasted 7 innings, surrendering 6 hits for 3 earned runs, to go along with 4 strikeouts. It wasn't a vintage Kluber display but, like most teams, the Orioles' lineup still struggled to give him much trouble. All except Machado (again), who tagged the Tribe ace for 3 hits on the day, including 2 home runs. Machado's first home run of the day simply destroyed the baseball, with an exit velocity recorded at 107.9 mph. Sheesh...

Carlos Carrasco was sent to seal the series win on Monday night and he delivered, pitching beautifully in a tight 2-1 Indians win. In yet another pitching duel, Carrasco prevailed over Kevin Gausman, allowing 6 hits for 1 run over 7.1 innings, with 7 strikeouts and 2 walks. Carrasco preserved his perfect record and is now a clean 4-0 to start the season. He constantly mixed his pitches to induce swings and misses, and gave the Baltimore lineup nightmares all evening.

Manny Mania Is A Real Thing

Manny Machado was a one man wrecking crew throughout this series, and did everything he could to help his Orioles to victory. Thankfully for Indians fans his efforts were in vain, but Machado is an interesting talking point.

Over 4 games and 16 plate appearances, Machado batted .500 with 6 hits, 4 walks, and smashed 3 mammoth home runs. These weren't home runs that just cleared the fences, these were absolute monsters, with two of them coming off reigning AL Cy Young winner Kluber. That's no easy feat.

On the season so far, Machado is batting .360 with 8 home runs, tied for second in the league, only trailing Mike Trout (who has 9). He has 14 walks and 15 strikeouts, a relatively promising ratio for such a young slugger.

Baltimore have surely resigned themselves to losing Machado, as the 25 year-old is a free agent at the end of this season. His availability was a hot topic at the Winter Meetings, with trade rumors for the O's franchise player doing the rounds. Surprisingly, Machado stayed put, but most observers don't expect he will last the season at Camden Yards, and will be dealt to a contender by mid-summer.

Could the Indians be one of those contenders? Will they enter the race for "Manny Machado, Super-Rental?"

Because that's exactly what he would be, a 4-5 month rental player, available to the highest bidder at the end of October. Realistically, the Indians will not be one of those bidders, as a player of Machado's quality will be far too expensive and command too much for Cleveland's modest bank balance.

Which leaves the question, would a trade for Machado on a short-term basis be worth it?

Baltimore would obviously demand a high ransom for their star player but if Machado is the last piece of the puzzle to clinch a World Series, then you have to consider going all-in. In my opinion, Machado is a talent that could swing a World Series in Cleveland's favor.

For fun, let's look at a possible trade scenario:

• Indians receive: Manny Machado SS 
• Orioles receive: Jason Kipnis 2B, Triston McKenzie RHP

Before you come at me with flaming torches and pitchforks, just hear me out.

McKenzie is considered by most analysts to be the Indians' top pitching prospect, a 6-5 starter who throws a 90-95 fastball with unbelievable location, and an excellent curveball. At just 20 years-old, McKenzie is the kind of prospect a General Manager like Dan Duquette could fall in love with.

So why include Kipnis I hear you ask? Adding Machado would create a real logjam in the infield, so someone has to make room and as much as I love Kip, he's the odd man out in this hypothetical situation.

Machado would take over duties at third base, with Lindor staying put at shortstop, and Jose Ramirez naturally replaces Kipnis at second base, a position he has displayed considerable ability at as recently as 2017. I would be very conflicted to lose Kipnis, but in truth, I think most Tribe fans would rank Ramirez above him, which makes Kipnis expendable (it hurts just typing that).

Do I make this trade if I'm Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff? In a heartbeat.

I'm firmly of the belief that Machado is the kind of player that could tip the scales in Cleveland's favor. With a dominant rotation already in place, and with elite bullpen pieces like Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in support, Machado would take the Indians to the next level.

I'm clearly all-in on Machado, and the Indians should give serious consideration towards joining me.

Making Moves For Melky

A final piece of news to end this longer-than-usual series recap: Melky Cabrera has been signed on a minor-league contract. The switch-hitting veteran is expected to report to Triple-A Columbus after a physical has been completed, and he will be looking to add some pop to the Tribe's outfield.

In 2017 Cabrera slashed .285/.324/.423 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 17 home runs and 85 RBI in 156 games, split between the Royals and White Sox. At the very least, he could offer some depth support if our current outfield options get hurt or under-perform.

The biggest question mark with Cabrera is his defense, and the numbers certainly don't like his glovework: in 2017 he had a -20 DRS rating and an overall UZR/150 of -11.4. I'm not a firm believer in defensive metrics telling the entire story, but Cabrera's stats don't exactly fill you with confidence.

Overall, I think he could be a useful signing, and honestly it's surprising nobody picked him before the Indians did. With Lonnie Chisenhall still out of action for the foreseeable future, having Cabrera as an option is not a bad way to go, and comes with very little risk.

Sonny Days Or Gray Clouds Ahead?

Sonny Gray is a quality pitcher. At the time of writing, everyone wants a piece of Sonny Gray. He's the hottest girl in school, and guys are lining up to ask him to prom.

He had a rough go of it in 2016, thanks to injuries and inconsistency, but so far this season he looks close to the Sonny Gray of old, the All Star pitcher from 2015. The 27 year-old is probably the most fawned over player on the trade block this month and the Oakland A's have a bevy of suitors willing to part with some golden nuggets in exchange for his services. Contending clubs left and right are putting together prospect packages for Gray, and the Indians are rumored to be one of those clubs. Whoever snags him will have to pay a heavy price however, as demand for starting pitchers this summer is high. A lot of clubs are in the market to upgrade their rotation, and the A's ace represents a significant upgrade for many.

Today I thought I'd run through some potential trade ideas the Tribe could fashion together to entice Oakland to part with their ace pitcher. It's no secret that Cleveland's rotation has been out of sorts this season, with only Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco performing well (although Mike Clevinger is developing nicely). The addition of an arm like Gray's would certainly boost the Indian's chances of success in the postseason.

On paper he looks to be a good match for the Tribe; he's under club control until 2020 and is having a strong season: a 3.72 ERA in 84.2 innings of work, with 79 strikeouts, all for a 113 ERA+ and a 5-4 record. He's been improving as the season has progressed, and his last 3 weeks have been superb, including a 6 inning, 2 hit shutout victory against the Indians on July 14th.

I'll rank the following potential deals with different grades, ranging from "In A Heartbeat" to "Over My Dead Body." Simple enough? Let's begin:

Trade Scenario 1

Oakland trade RHP Sonny Gray
Cleveland trade C Francisco Mejia

How about a straight up trade of Oakland's best pitcher for Cleveland's best prospect? I really like Sonny Gray, and have for a few years now, but I am firmly against giving up Mejia for him. I consider Gray a top of the rotation kind of guy but he's not elite enough to surrender a prospect who could become a marquee catcher for the next decade. With Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez struggling to prove themselves as long-term solutions (their sublime defense aside), Mejia's value is currently much higher to the Indians than it would be for the A's. In the very near future, catcher is looking like a position of real need for the Tribe so it doesn't make sense to jettison the one man already under control who could solve the problem. Catchers that can hit like Mejia don't come around very often; at Double-A Akron, the young backstop is slashing .336/.385/.552 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 10 home runs, 35 RBI and 5 stolen bases. Scouts and experts absolutely rave about the kid's hitting skills, and grade him high defensively too.

Mejia is the sole trade chip the Indians can dangle in front of Oakland that could persuade the A's to ignore the treasures offered by other interested clubs, but if I were Indians Team President Chris Antonetti, I would not be willing to risk losing a future star like Mejia. Even for an admittedly great pitcher like Gray.

Trade rating: Over My Dead Body

Trade Scenario 2

Oakland trade RHP Sonny Gray
Cleveland trade CF Tyler Naquin and RHP Triston McKenzie

This is more like it. Naquin narrowly missed out on winning the AL Rookie of the Year award last season and McKenzie is widely ranked as the Indians' number 2 prospect overall, and their top pitching prospect. The real jewel in this deal would be McKenzie but Naquin is a nice bonus. He's not had the best 2017 campaign so far, spending most of his time at Triple-A Columbus, but he's still young enough to retain some of his former value.  The potential is still there. Would the A's go for someone like Naquin? Given their history of taking guys seemingly off the scrapheap and getting production from them, I think they'd be more open to the idea than perhaps you might think.

Many fans consider McKenzie a 'hands-off' prospect in the same category as Mejia but I have other feelings. My thinking is this: McKenzie could be a superstar, but trading him for a pitcher already established as above-average when the rest of your team is so agonizingly close to competing for a championship, it's a no-brainer. Yes, there's some risk involved with Gray's injury history, so the Indians need to be absolutely sure he's back to full health. If the A's were willing, the Indians could trade McKenzie for Gray in a straight swap, but considering the young pitcher hasn't even reached Double-A yet, Oakland would almost certainly need a sweetener. Naquin could be that guy.

Trade rating: In A Heartbeat

Trade Scenario 3

Oakland trade RHP Sonny Gray
Cleveland trade CF Greg Allen, LHP Brady Aiken and SS Erik Gonzalez

Despite Brady Aiken being ranked above Greg Allen on most prospect boards, I actually think the loss of Allen is more significant in this trade. I absolutely love Allen. If Zimmer wasn't blocking his direct path to the majors, he'd be on track to contribute for the Indians within the next two years. As it currently stands, he still could, but Zimmer has started his career in the majors so well that it looks like Allen will have great difficulty forcing his way onto the big club roster. As a result, the young outfielder has become a pretty good trade chip, one that could come in very handy to acquire a player of Gray's caliber.

Aiken and Gonzalez aren't exactly throw-ins either. Aiken, despite his struggles this year (a 4.10 ERA and 14.1% strikeout percentage at A-ball Lake County), is still considered a top prospect and the former first round draft pick has time on his side to redeem himself.

Gonzalez has featured in 25 major league games this season and has performed well, and is likely to see an increase in playing time until Jason Kipnis returns from the disabled list. This is his opportunity to put himself in the shop window, as the Tribe's infield is already crowded with talent. Similar to Allen, it will be difficult to break into an established group of All Stars, so Gonzalez's future as a major league infielder could lie elsewhere.

The major difficulty with this trade is it's attractiveness. You just know that clubs like the Yankees and Astros have more frills to woo Oakland with, so I don't expect a deal like this would be tempting enough. However it's a win-win for the Indians if they could pull it off and persuade the A's to embrace it more than the other offers out there.

Trade rating: In A Heartbeat

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As I've mentioned, the competition for Gray's services is steep. The Yankees in particular are desperate to give their fans October baseball and they need starting pitching, and have a deep collection of prospects they could throw at the A's. The Astros rightfully think this could be their year and have a top 5 farm system to seduce Oakland with, including monstrous prospect Derek Fisher. Even the upstart Brewers are reportedly going all-in to acquire Gray, and could pull off a July trade deal similar to the CC Sabathia acquisition back in 2008.

I always enjoy the hot stove season and the race for Sonny Gray will keep things extra interesting this year. Do I expect the Indians to land him? I honestly think that the other interested teams have flashier prospects, and could be more willing to chuck everything at Oakland to make a deal. Cleveland has some tempting players on offer but I just don't see them risking all of that future talent on one 27 year-old pitcher, still recovering from a bad 2016 campaign. I would love to add Gray to the rotation, don't get me wrong, but there's definitely a limit, and it looks like a 5'10, 180lb switch-hitting 21 year-old Dominican catcher who absolutely rakes.

Thanks for reading.